The Geopolitical Risk focus area examines how great power transitions, strategic competition, and systemic stress increase the risk of both major war and cascading regional conflicts. Applying strategic foresight, this research tracks escalation pathways, anticipates emerging risks, and identifies conflict flashpoints before they erupt.

Particular attention is paid to regions most likely to be caught in the crosshairs of great power rivalry, where external competition heightens the risk of proxy wars, internal fragmentation, and sudden conflict escalation. By combining foresight methods, including scenario analysis and early warning, with rigorous geopolitical analysis, this research seeks to reduce strategic surprise and improve preparedness.

The goal is to generate forward-looking insights that help policymakers better understand emerging risks, stress-test assumptions, and navigate an increasingly volatile and fragmented global security environment.